Olympiacos F.C. win (1)
48%
1.53
OddScore Pick
48%
Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha Prediction & Tips
Europa League
• Round 3
Olympiacos F.C.
Sparta Praha
Thursday, 22 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki
AI Prediction Markets
Market average
64%
18 bookmakers
Model
48%
48%
Probability Distribution
Home (48%) / Draw (25%) / Away (28%)
Sparta Praha win (2)
28%
7.00
Draw (X)
25%
4.60
Probability Distribution
Yes — 51% | No — 49%
Both teams to score — Yes
51%
1.90
Both teams to score — No
49%
1.91
Probability Distribution
Under — 51% | Over 2.5 — 49%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
2.13
Over 2.5 goals
49%
1.78
Yes
Under
⇄ Why the estimates differ
Both sources make Olympiacos the favourite, but the market gives them a much firmer edge. The data offers a few things that could account for that.
Olympiacos have won both league games, and their expected goals figures are strong at both ends: high for, low against. Sparta's underlying numbers are more balanced, with a noticeably weaker defensive figure. A market leaning heavily on these chance-quality numbers would separate the sides more than a model that weighs a wider run of results. That run includes a home loss-free but goalless stretch, with two 0-0 draws and a defeat to NEC Nijmegen.
Squad availability also differs. Olympiacos list twelve unavailable players, most of them suspended, while Sparta list eleven, mostly injured. The data doesn't show how much either list affects the likely starting elevens, and line-ups aren't announced. The two estimates may weigh these absences differently. Beyond this, the data doesn't point to a single clear reason for the gap.
✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown
Olympiacos host Sparta Praha in Round 3 of the Europa League. The model gives the home side the edge, with a 47.73% chance of a home win, 24.75% for a draw and 27.52% for an away win. The bookmaker prices are 1.56 for the home side, 4.56 for the draw and 6.2 for the away side. Those prices imply a stronger home advantage than the model does, so the model is more cautious about Olympiacos than the market is.
Both teams have played twice this season. Olympiacos have won both, with 3 goals scored and 1 conceded, and sit 18th in the league phase table. Sparta Praha have a win and a draw, with 5 goals scored and 2 conceded, and sit 24th. Both teams scored in all of Sparta's matches so far, but in only half of Olympiacos' matches. Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 50% of each side's games.
The goal markets look balanced. The model puts both teams scoring at 51.05% and the opposite at 48.95%. Over 2.5 goals is 49.09% and under 2.5 is 50.91%. Over 1.5 goals is 73.83%, and under 3.5 goals is 72.65%. That points to a match more likely to stay in a moderate scoring range than to turn into a high-scoring one, since over 4.5 goals is given only 15.71%.
Availability could shape the match. Olympiacos list a long set of absentees, including Ayoub El Kaabi, Joel Roca and Yusuf Yazıcı through injury. They also list suspensions for Balsa Popovic, Clayton, Dani García, Konstantinos Fortounis, Lorenzo Scipioni, Manolis Saliakas, Marius Mouandilmadji and Roman Yaremchuk, plus Joel Roca Casals. Sparta Praha are missing ten players, nine of them injured, among them Adam Karabec, Elias Cobbaut and Sivert Mannsverk, and Emmanuel Uchenna is suspended. These probabilities are estimates, not guarantees of any outcome.
Olympiacos F.C. Form
Oct 22
Sparta Praha
1 - 0
W
Oct 15
Olympique Marseille
1 - 0
W
Sep 16
Jagiellonia Białystok
2 - 1
W
Aug 11
NEC Nijmegen
1 - 2
L
Aug 4
NEC Nijmegen
0 - 0
D
Sparta Praha Form
Oct 22
Olympiacos F.C.
0 - 1
L
Oct 15
Lillestrøm
1 - 1
D
Sep 16
Ararat-Armenia
4 - 1
W
Aug 11
Olympique Lyonnais
0 - 3
L
Aug 4
Olympique Lyonnais
2 - 1
W
Key Stats & Team Metrics
Olympiacos F.C.
Sparta Praha
2.13
xG per match
1.51
0.75
xG against
1.5
19
Shots per match
17.3
54
Possession, %
50.3
4
Goals this season
5
33.33
Both teams scored, %
66.67
33.33
Over 2.5, %
33.33