Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Olympique Marseille host Toulouse in round nine of Ligue 1 on 1 November 2026, with kick-off at 19:45 UTC. Marseille are eighth after four wins and four defeats in eight matches, scoring 18 goals and conceding 13. Toulouse sit 11th, with two wins, four draws and two defeats, alongside 12 goals scored and 11 conceded. The model makes Marseille the likeliest winners at 46.9%, compared with 25.53% for a draw and 27.6% for a Toulouse victory. That gives the hosts an advantage, although their win probability remains below half.

The goals outlook suggests a moderate lean towards both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, at 56.71% and 54.33% respectively. Both clubs have recorded both teams scoring in 50% of their league matches this season, while 62.5% of each side’s games have exceeded 2.5 goals. The model also assigns 68.06% to under 3.5 goals, tempering expectations of a particularly high total. Marseille are unbeaten in the four listed meetings with Toulouse, winning three and drawing one, with the latest ending in a 1–0 away victory.

Availability adds uncertainty. Marseille’s absentees include injured players Amine Harit, Leonardo Balerdi and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, while Chancel Mbemba, Quinten Timber and Timothy Weah are suspended. Toulouse are without suspended Alexis Vossah, Aron Dønnum and Frank Magri. The overall picture favours Marseille, but Toulouse’s four draws this season and the model’s probabilities leave substantial room for a different result.