Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 3

Omonia Nicosia

Benfica

Thursday, 22 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Neo GSP (Nicosía (Levkosía))

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 73% 18 bookmakers Model 47%

Probability Distribution Home (29%) / Draw (24%) / Away (47%)

Benfica win (2) 47%

1.37 OddScore Pick

Omonia Nicosia win (1) 29%

10.50

Draw (X) 24%

6.50

Probability Distribution Yes — 61% | No — 39%

Both teams to score — Yes 61%

1.80

Both teams to score — No 39%

2.05

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 61% | Under — 39%

Over 2.5 goals 61%

1.50

Under 2.5 goals 39%

2.81

Both teams to score Yes — 61% vs No — 39% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 61% vs Under — 39% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 47% | Market: 73% -35.1% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The clearest difference in the data is the gap in underlying chance creation. Benfica's expected goals are strong at both ends (high for, low against), while Omonia's expected goals against is higher than their expected goals for. A market that leans heavily on that profile would put Benfica well ahead. The model appears to give Omonia's results more weight. Those include four wins in six, a 10-4 goals record, and a sixth-place table position.

Squad availability is another possible factor. Omonia have seven players listed as unavailable, six injured and one suspended, while Benfica have three, two injured and one suspended. If bookmakers weigh those absences more heavily, that would widen the distance between the two estimates. The data does not show how either side accounts for them.

Line-ups have not been announced. Beyond these points, the data does not identify a specific cause for the gap.

Gap of 25.6 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Omonia Nicosia host Benfica in Round 3 of the Europa League, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC on 22 October 2026. The model makes the visitors the most likely winners at 47.41%. The home side is given 28.72% and a draw 23.87%. The bookmaker prices point the same way: Benfica are best available at 1.41, a draw at 5.22 and Omonia at 8. The model gives Omonia a higher chance than a price of 8 would imply, but Benfica are still clearly the favourites.

Benfica arrive in strong form. They have played 8 matches this season, with 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, and a goal record of 25 scored and 7 conceded. They sit third in the league. Both teams scored in 75% of their matches, and the same share went over 2.5 goals. Omonia have played 6, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 1, with 10 goals for and 4 against, and they are sixth in their league. Their games have been much quieter: both teams scored in 33.33% of them, and the same share went over 2.5 goals.

The model leans towards goals. It puts both teams scoring at 61.28% against 38.72% for no, and over 2.5 goals at 61.39%. Over 1.5 is at 81.59%, over 3.5 at 39.31% and over 4.5 at 25.28%. Omonia's absences may matter. Seven players are unavailable: Andreas Christou, Carel Eiting, David Akintola, Fotis Kitsos, Mihlali Mayambela and Panagiotis Andreou are injured, and Mateo Maric is suspended. Benfica are missing Gianluca Prestianni through suspension, and Gonçalo Oliveira and Jakub Kamiński through injury. These figures are probabilities, not certainties, and Omonia's chance of a result at home remains real.

Omonia Nicosia Form

Oct 22 Benfica 1 - 4 L

Oct 15 Celje 3 - 0 W

Sep 16 Celta de Vigo 1 - 0 W

Aug 27 Sint-Truiden 4 - 2 W

Aug 20 Sint-Truiden 0 - 1 L

Benfica Form

Oct 22 Omonia Nicosia 4 - 1 W

Oct 15 Celtic 4 - 1 W

Sep 16 AC Milan 2 - 0 W

Aug 27 AGF 3 - 1 W

Aug 20 AGF 3 - 1 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Omonia Nicosia Benfica

1.21

xG per match

2.68

1.93

xG against

0.97

12.3

Shots per match

21.2

Possession, %

57.8

Goals this season

42.86

Both teams scored, %

77.78

42.86

Over 2.5, %

77.78