Parma win (1)
35%
3.50
OddScore Pick
35%
Parma vs Torino Prediction & Tips
Serie A
• Round 7
Parma
Torino
Monday, 19 October 2026 — 18:45 UTC
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Stadio Ennio Tardini
AI Prediction Markets
Market average
40%
18 bookmakers
Model
35%
35%
Probability Distribution
Home (35%) / Draw (31%) / Away (34%)
Torino win (2)
34%
2.55
Draw (X)
31%
3.15
Probability Distribution
No — 54% | Yes — 46%
Both teams to score — No
54%
1.80
Both teams to score — Yes
46%
2.04
Probability Distribution
Under — 62% | Over 2.5 — 38%
Under 2.5 goals
62%
1.62
Over 2.5 goals
38%
2.62
No
Under
⇄ Why the estimates differ
The model gives Parma a slightly better chance than the market does, and the market leans toward Torino. The draw is priced identically, so the whole gap is in how the home and away sides are weighed against each other.
The data offers a few things that could pull in different directions. Parma sit 18th with one win in six and a goal difference of 4-10, and their expected goals against, around 1.67 per match, is the weakest defensive figure on the page. Torino are 12th with a somewhat better record and expected goals balance. A market that leans on table position and results would read this as favouring Torino. The head-to-head record is mixed, with Torino's 4-1 win the most recent meeting. Both squads have several injuries, Torino's list being longer and including two forwards, Adams and Simeone. A model that weights absences could give that more influence. Line-ups are not announced, so this is uncertain.
✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown
Parma host Torino in Round 7 of Serie A on 19 October, and the model sees a very open contest. It gives the home side 35.25%, the draw 30.71% and Torino 34.04%. Those figures are close enough that no outcome stands out. The bookmaker prices point the other way: the best available odds are 2.63 on Torino and 3.44 on Parma, so the market leans towards the visitors more than the model does.
The form tables show two teams in the lower half. Torino are 12th after six matches, with two wins, one draw and three defeats and a goal record of 7:9. Parma are 18th, with one win, one draw and four defeats, and have scored 4 and conceded 10. Both sides have significant absences. Torino list seven players as injured: Adam Masina, Cesare Casadei, Ché Adams, Franco Israel, Giovanni Simeone, Niccolò Fortini and Zanos Savva. Parma list four: Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, Pontus Almqvist and Vicente Guaita.
On goals, the model leans towards a moderate-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals has a 38.24% probability and under 2.5 has 61.76%. Both teams scoring is rated at 46.37%, against 53.63% for at least one side failing to score. Torino's matches this season have seen both teams score 83.33% of the time and over 2.5 goals 66.67% of the time, while Parma's figures are 50% for each. The recent head-to-head is mixed: Torino won 4:1 in March 2026, Parma won 2:1 in September 2025, and the two earlier meetings finished 2:2 and 0:0. These are probabilities, not certainties, and a match this balanced could go either way.
Parma Form
Oct 28
Udinese
0 - 0
D
Oct 24
Lazio
1 - 2
L
Oct 19
Torino
0 - 3
L
Oct 10
Inter
0 - 3
L
Sep 20
Genoa
2 - 1
W
Torino Form
Oct 27
Como
1 - 3
L
Oct 23
Monza
3 - 2
W
Oct 19
Parma
3 - 0
W
Oct 12
Udinese
2 - 1
W
Sep 19
Bologna
1 - 1
D
Head to Head History
DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Mar 13, 2026
Torino
4 - 1
Parma
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Sep 29, 2025
Parma
2 - 1
Torino
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Mar 8, 2025
Parma
2 - 2
Torino
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Jan 5, 2025
Torino
0 - 0
Parma
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Key Stats & Team Metrics
Parma
Torino
0.95
xG per match
1.13
1.64
xG against
1.5
10.3
Shots per match
10.7
42.1
Possession, %
48.3
5
Goals this season
14
44.44
Both teams scored, %
77.78
55.56
Over 2.5, %
77.78