Parma vs Udinese Prediction & Tips

Serie A • Round 9

Parma

Udinese

Wednesday, 28 October 2026 — 17:30 UTC

Stadio Ennio Tardini

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 35% 17 bookmakers Model 36%

Probability Distribution Home (36%) / Draw (29%) / Away (35%)

Parma win (1) 36%

2.90 OddScore Pick

Udinese win (2) 35%

2.77

Draw (X) 29%

3.30

Probability Distribution No — 51% | Yes — 49%

Both teams to score — No 51%

2.00

Both teams to score — Yes 49%

1.80

Probability Distribution Under — 58% | Over 2.5 — 42%

Under 2.5 goals 58%

1.83

Over 2.5 goals 42%

2.19

Both teams to score Yes — 49% vs No — 51% No

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 42% vs Under — 58% Under

Neural edge detected Model: 36% | Market: 35% +4.2% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The model narrowly favours Parma at home, while the market favours Udinese away, with little disagreement over the draw. Parma’s stronger defensive figures offer a plausible basis for the model’s lean: they have conceded fewer goals and allow less expected xG per match. Their last five matches also include a win, whereas Udinese have lost all five. Parma are at home, although the supplied data does not show how either estimate weights that factor.

Udinese’s higher scoring total, slightly stronger attacking xG and higher league position could support the market’s preference. They have also won three of the last four meetings, though Parma won the most recent. Both teams have identical season records. Udinese have more listed absentees, but without player impact measures or announced line-ups, those absences cannot establish why the estimates differ. The data suggests competing signals rather than a definitive explanation.

Gap of 1.5 percentage points, and the two estimates favour different outcomes.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Parma host Udinese in round 9 of Serie A on 28 October 2026, with kick-off at 17:30 UTC. Both sides have recorded one win, one draw and six defeats from eight league matches, leaving Parma 19th and Udinese 17th. Parma have scored five goals and conceded 15, while Udinese have scored nine and conceded 18. Those records highlight difficulties at both ends, although Udinese have offered more in attack. The recent head-to-head results are mixed: Parma won the latest meeting 1–0, while Udinese won the preceding three.

The model sees a closely balanced contest, assigning Parma a 36.16% chance of victory, Udinese 34.73% and the draw 29.11%. That slight preference for the hosts contrasts with the available bookmaker odds, which make Udinese the shorter-priced side at 2.56, compared with Parma at 3.13 and the draw at 3.4. Neither team has a decisive advantage in the model’s assessment.

The goals outlook leans towards under 2.5 at 57.75%, despite 62.5% of each side’s league matches this season finishing over that threshold. Both teams scoring is also finely balanced, with “no” at 51.19% and “yes” at 48.81%. Availability adds further context: Udinese have ten players listed as injured, including Nicolò Zaniolo and Oumar Solet, while Parma have five, including Pontus Almqvist and Hans Nicolussi Caviglia. Taken together, the supplied figures suggest a competitive match with a modest lean towards fewer goals, while leaving substantial uncertainty over the result.

Parma Form

Oct 28 Udinese 0 - 0 D

Oct 24 Lazio 1 - 2 L

Oct 19 Torino 0 - 3 L

Oct 10 Inter 0 - 3 L

Sep 20 Genoa 2 - 1 W

Udinese Form

Oct 28 Parma 0 - 0 D

Oct 25 AC Milan 0 - 2 L

Oct 18 Lecce 0 - 3 L

Oct 12 Torino 1 - 2 L

Sep 19 Cagliari 0 - 1 L

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Apr 18, 2026 Udinese 0 - 1 Parma Dacia Arena

Nov 29, 2025 Parma 0 - 2 Udinese Stadio Ennio Tardini

Mar 1, 2025 Udinese 1 - 0 Parma Dacia Arena

Sep 16, 2024 Parma 2 - 3 Udinese Stadio Ennio Tardini

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Parma Udinese

0.95

xG per match

1.08

1.64

xG against

1.88

10.3

Shots per match

14.7

42.1

Possession, %

50.7

Goals this season

44.44

Both teams scored, %

55.56

Over 2.5, %

55.56