Racing Santander vs Real Madrid Prediction & Tips

La Liga • Round 11

Racing Santander

Real Madrid

Sunday, 1 November 2026 — 15:15 UTC

Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 78% 15 bookmakers Model 52%

Probability Distribution Home (25%) / Draw (23%) / Away (52%)

Real Madrid win (2) 52%

1.25 OddScore Pick

Racing Santander win (1) 25%

11.30

Draw (X) 23%

7.93

Probability Distribution Yes — 63% | No — 37%

Both teams to score — Yes 63%

1.50

Both teams to score — No 37%

2.63

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 65% | Under — 35%

Over 2.5 goals 65%

1.20

Under 2.5 goals 35%

4.60

Both teams to score Yes — 63% vs No — 37% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 65% vs Under — 35% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 52% | Market: 78% -32.9% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates favour Real Madrid, but the market expresses much stronger confidence. Madrid’s five consecutive wins, stronger league record and superior goal balance provide plausible reasons for that confidence. Racing have lost three of their last five, including heavy defeats to Celta de Vigo and Barcelona, and their season-long expected goals against exceed their expected goals for. Madrid’s expected-goals figures show the opposite pattern.

There are also factors that could support the model’s more cautious assessment. Madrid have fourteen listed absentees, compared with Racing’s four, although the data does not quantify their impact. Racing are unbeaten in the two home matches shown, while all three recent defeats came away. These factors could receive different weight in the two estimates, but the supplied data does not reveal how either incorporates them, and line-ups remain unannounced.

Gap of 25.6 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Racing Santander host Real Madrid in La Liga round 11 on 1 November 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 15:15 UTC. The model gives Real Madrid the stronger chance of victory at 52.21%, compared with 24.53% for Racing Santander and 23.23% for a draw. The available bookmaker odds also make Real Madrid the clear favourite at 1.25, while Racing Santander are priced at 12 and the draw at 8.2.

Real Madrid have won eight of their ten league matches, losing two, and sit third with 25 goals scored and 10 conceded. Racing Santander are 13th after three wins, two draws and five defeats, with 15 goals scored and 26 conceded. Both teams have recorded 70% for both teams to score and 80% for over 2.5 goals this season. The model assigns a 63.03% probability to both teams scoring and 65.16% to over 2.5 goals, suggesting a relatively open match is more likely than a low-scoring game. Real Madrid will be without Arda Güler, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Bernardo Silva, Dean Huijsen, Eduardo Camavinga, Éder Militão, Endrick, Ferland Mendy, Ibrahima Konaté, Raúl Asencio, Rodrygo, Thiago Pitarch, Thibaut Courtois and Vinicius Junior. Racing Santander are missing Andrés Martín, Manex Lozano, Pedro Felipe and Simon Eriksson.

Racing Santander Form

Oct 24 Espanyol 2 - 1 W

Oct 18 Osasuna 0 - 2 L

Oct 11 Valencia 2 - 2 D

Sep 19 Celta de Vigo 0 - 5 L

Sep 16 FC Barcelona 2 - 7 L

Real Madrid Form

Oct 25 FC Barcelona 2 - 1 W

Oct 21 RB Leipzig 4 - 1 W

Oct 18 Sevilla 4 - 1 W

Oct 14 Roma 4 - 3 W

Oct 10 Villarreal 1 - 0 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Racing Santander Real Madrid

1.34

xG per match

2.1

2.14

xG against

1.18

12.4

Shots per match

16.8

50.1

Possession, %

51.7

Goals this season

Both teams scored, %

Over 2.5, %