RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Prediction & Tips

Bundesliga • Round 7
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
versus
Elversberg
Elversberg
Saturday, 24 October 2026 — 13:30 UTC Red Bull Arena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 65% 17 bookmakers Model 62%
Probability Distribution Home (62%) / Draw (21%) / Away (17%)
RB Leipzig win (1) 62%
1.53 OddScore Pick
Draw (X) 21%
5.80
Elversberg win (2) 17%
7.10
Probability Distribution Yes — 56% | No — 44%
Both teams to score — Yes 56%
1.41
Both teams to score — No 44%
3.00
Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 61% | Under — 39%
Over 2.5 goals 61%
1.28
Under 2.5 goals 39%
3.90
Both teams to score Yes — 56% vs No — 44% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 61% vs Under — 39% Over
Neural edge detected Model: 62% | Market: 65% -4.2% Edge

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

RB Leipzig host Elversberg in round 7 of the Bundesliga, with the model rating the home side as clear favourites. It gives Leipzig a 61.88% chance of winning, the draw 20.58% and an Elversberg win 17.5%. The bookmaker prices point the same way, at 1.46 for the home side, 5.7 for the draw and 7 for the visitors. The table is tight, though. Elversberg are sixth and Leipzig seventh, and each has won three of its six games.

Leipzig's record is uneven: three wins and three defeats, with 16 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their games have produced goals, as over 2.5 goals has landed in 83.33% of their matches, though both teams have scored in only 33.33% of them. Elversberg have three wins, one draw and two defeats, with 12 goals for and 11 against. Both teams scored in 66.67% of their games, and so did over 2.5 goals.

The absence lists are long on both sides, and Leipzig's is much longer. Leipzig are without Abdoul Koné, Leopold Zingerle, Marc Guiu and Suleiman Sani through suspension. Assan Ouédraogo, Brajan Gruda, Castello Lukeba, Christoph Baumgartner, Kevin Kampl, Lukas Klostermann, Maxime Estève, Ørjan Nyland, Rocco Reitz, Rômulo and Xaver Schlager are injured. Elversberg are missing Lukas Pinckert through suspension, and Francis Onyeka, Luis Seifert, Manuel Feil and Tom Zimmerschied through injury.

On goals, the model puts the chance of over 2.5 at 61.04% and over 3.5 at 39.83%. It rates both teams scoring at 56.51%. Leipzig's favouritism is clear but not overwhelming, given their form and the number of players they lack. These figures are probabilities, not guarantees, and a draw or an away win remains a realistic outcome.

RB Leipzig Form

Oct 24 Elversberg 4 - 0 W
Oct 21 Real Madrid 1 - 4 L
Oct 17 FC Bayern München 1 - 6 L
Oct 13 PSV 1 - 0 W
Oct 10 Eintracht Frankfurt 6 - 0 W

Elversberg Form

Oct 30 FSV Mainz 05 4 - 1 W
Oct 24 RB Leipzig 0 - 4 L
Oct 17 FC Augsburg 4 - 3 W
Oct 10 FC Union Berlin 0 - 1 L
Sep 20 Schalke 04 0 - 0 D

Key Stats & Team Metrics

RB Leipzig Elversberg
2.24
xG per match
1.57
1.58
xG against
2.28
17.1
Shots per match
10.6
53
Possession, %
45.8
20
Goals this season
16
28.57
Both teams scored, %
62.5
85.71
Over 2.5, %
75