Real Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Real Madrid host Sevilla in round 9 of La Liga on 18 October, kicking off at 19:00 UTC. The model gives the home side a 70.5% chance of winning, with the draw at 18.06% and an away win at 11.44%. The best available bookmaker prices (1.26 home, 7 draw, 12.6 away) also make Madrid clear favourites. Even so, a probability is not a guarantee, and a result going the other way is far from impossible.

Both sides have started the season well. Real Madrid sit fourth after eight matches with six wins and two defeats, and a goal record of 19 scored and 8 conceded. Sevilla are fifth with four wins, two draws and two defeats, and their goal record is 13 scored and 12 conceded. Madrid's games have more often produced goals, with over 2.5 goals in 75% of them against 62.5% for Sevilla. Both teams have scored in 62.5% of Madrid's matches and 75% of Sevilla's. Recent meetings favour the hosts: Madrid won all four of the latest head-to-head matches, including a 4:2 in December 2024, and Sevilla failed to score in the last three.

Both squads have significant absences. Real Madrid are without Arda Güler, Bernardo Silva, Dean Huijsen and Eduardo Camavinga through suspension. Aurélien Tchouaméni, Éder Militão, Endrick, Ferland Mendy, Ibrahima Konaté, Raúl Asencio, Rodrygo, Thiago Pitarch and Thibaut Courtois are injured. Sevilla are missing Adrià Pedrosa and Isaac Romero (suspended), as well as Arouna Sangante, Lucas Stassin, Marcão, Rubén Vargas and Valentín Barco (injured).

On goals, the model puts over 2.5 at 60.08% and over 3.5 at 37.75%. Both teams scoring is close to an even call at 52.08%, against 47.92% for the opposite. Taken together, the numbers point to a probable home win in a match with a fair chance of goals at both ends.