Roma vs Genoa Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Roma host Genoa in Round 7 of Serie A on 17 October (kick-off 18:45 UTC). The model makes the hosts clear favourites, with a 67.68% chance of a home win, 21.34% for a draw and 11.02% for a Genoa victory. The best available bookmaker prices of 1.45, 4.92 and 8.3 point the same way. Form supports this. Roma are third after six matches, with four wins, two draws and no defeats, and a goal record of 14 scored and 3 conceded. Genoa are 17th with one win, one draw and four defeats, having scored 5 and conceded 11.

The goal markets look more balanced. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 50.41% and under 2.5 at 49.56%. Over 1.5 stands at 74.33%, and over 3.5 at 28.42%. Both teams to score is rated at 42.03%, against 57.97% for no. Roma's season profile fits that lean. Both sides have scored in only a third of their matches, though over 2.5 goals has landed in 66.67% of them. Genoa's games have seen both teams score 66.67% of the time and over 2.5 goals 50% of the time.

The recent head-to-head is less one-sided than the table suggests. Roma won 3:1 at home in December 2025 and in January 2025. Genoa won the most recent meeting 2:1 on 8 March 2026, and the September 2024 game ended 1:1. Squad availability matters for both sides. Genoa are without Hamed Traoré (injured) and the suspended Johan Vásquez and M. Badelj. Roma are missing Bryan Cristante, Devyne Rensch, Evan Ferguson, Mile Svilar and Renato Marin through injury, plus the suspended Donyell Malen. The model's favouring of Roma is a probability, not a certainty, and Genoa still have roughly a one-in-nine chance of winning.