Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction & Tips

Champions League • Round 2

Roma

Real Madrid

Wednesday, 14 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Stadio Olimpico

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 49% 19 bookmakers Model 39%

Probability Distribution Home (38%) / Draw (23%) / Away (39%)

Real Madrid win (2) 39%

1.97 OddScore Pick

Roma win (1) 38%

3.94

Draw (X) 23%

4.14

Probability Distribution Yes — 64% | No — 36%

Both teams to score — Yes 64%

1.44

Both teams to score — No 36%

2.88

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 65% | Under — 35%

Over 2.5 goals 65%

1.44

Under 2.5 goals 35%

2.89

Both teams to score Yes — 64% vs No — 36% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 65% vs Under — 35% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 39% | Market: 49% -20.0% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both sources make Real Madrid the favourite and put the draw at similar levels, so the gap lies in how much of the remaining probability goes to a Roma win. The data points to a few things that could pull the two views apart. Expected goals per match are fairly close: Roma are slightly lower for and against, so a model built on those figures could see a narrow difference between the sides. Roma's last five are unbeaten, while Real Madrid lost once in theirs. Each side has played only one match this season, so current-season figures carry little weight.

Availability is also a factor. Real Madrid list thirteen absentees, including their goalkeeper and several suspended players. Roma list five, including Svilar and a second goalkeeper. Lines-ups are not announced, so any weighting of these absences is uncertain. The data does not show how either estimate treats them, or what else the bookmakers factor in.

Gap of 11.6 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Roma host Real Madrid in Round 2 of the Champions League, with kick-off on 14 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC. The model leans slightly towards the visitors. It gives Real Madrid a 40.12% chance of winning, Roma 37.26% and a draw 22.62%. The gap between the two sides is small, and the outcome is far from settled. The best available bookmaker prices put Real Madrid at 1.94 and Roma at 3.88, so the market rates the visitors as stronger favourites than the model does.

Both teams have played one match this season. Roma drew 1-1 and Real Madrid won 2-1. Both games saw both teams score, and Real Madrid's also finished with more than 2.5 goals. The listed league positions are 53 for Roma and 41 for Real Madrid, though one match each is a very small sample.

The model expects goals. It puts both teams scoring at 63.84%, against 36.16% for a clean sheet by at least one side. Over 1.5 goals is rated at 83.61%, over 2.5 at 64.62% and over 3.5 at 43.34%. Over 4.5 goals is rated at 28.62%, so the model considers a very high-scoring game the less likely outcome.

Both squads have significant absences. Roma are without Bryan Cristante, Devyne Rensch, Evan Ferguson, Mile Svilar and Renato Marin, all injured. Real Madrid have a much longer list. Arda Güler, Bernardo Silva, Dean Huijsen and Eduardo Camavinga are suspended. Aurélien Tchouaméni, Éder Militão, Endrick, Ferland Mendy, Ibrahima Konaté, Raúl Asencio, Rodrigo, Thiago Pitarch and Thibaut Courtois are injured. These absences add uncertainty to any forecast, which remains a probability and not a guarantee.

Roma Form

Oct 27 Cagliari 4 - 2 W

Oct 24 Napoli 3 - 3 D

Oct 20 Slovan Bratislava 4 - 0 W

Oct 17 Genoa 2 - 0 W

Oct 14 Real Madrid 3 - 4 L

Real Madrid Form

Oct 25 FC Barcelona 2 - 1 W

Oct 21 RB Leipzig 4 - 1 W

Oct 18 Sevilla 4 - 1 W

Oct 14 Roma 4 - 3 W

Oct 10 Villarreal 1 - 0 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Roma Real Madrid

1.94

xG per match

2.91

1.06

xG against

1.51

Shots per match

16.7

61.7

Possession, %

48.7

Goals this season

66.67

Both teams scored, %

100

66.67

Over 2.5, %

100