SC Freiburg vs Jablonec Prediction & Tips

Europa Conference League • Round 1

SC Freiburg

Jablonec

Thursday, 15 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Europa-Park Stadion

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 77% 19 bookmakers Model 57%

Probability Distribution Home (57%) / Draw (23%) / Away (20%)

SC Freiburg win (1) 57%

1.29 OddScore Pick

Draw (X) 23%

6.75

Jablonec win (2) 20%

14.00

Probability Distribution Yes — 50% | No — 50%

Both teams to score — Yes 50%

2.20

Both teams to score — No 50%

1.67

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 53% | Under — 47%

Over 2.5 goals 53%

1.67

Under 2.5 goals 47%

2.28

Both teams to score Yes — 50% vs No — 50% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 53% vs Under — 47% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 57% | Market: 77% -26.4% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates put Freiburg ahead, but the market sits well above the model on the home side and below it on the draw and away outcomes. The data offers a few things that could account for this. Freiburg's recent record is strong, with four wins and a draw in five, a heavy goal difference, and an expected goals profile of high output and low concession. Jablonec's expected goals run the other way, with very little created and a lot conceded, even though their results include three wins in five. If the market leans more on that expected goals contrast and the scale of Freiburg's recent scorelines, a wider home margin would follow. Squad availability is a second factor. Jablonec have four players suspended, while Freiburg are missing five through injury or suspension. Line-ups are not yet announced, so how each side weighs these absences is unclear. The data does not show which factor drives the difference.

Gap of 20.3 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

SC Freiburg host Jablonec in round 1 of the Europa Conference League, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC on 15 October 2026. The model makes Freiburg clear favourites, giving them a 56.59% chance of winning, against 22.98% for a draw and 20.43% for a Jablonec victory. The bookmaker prices point the same way, with the best available odds at 1.33 for the home side, 6 for the draw and 11.1 for the away side.

Freiburg have won both of their games this season and scored 7 goals while conceding 2. Both of those matches saw both teams score and more than 2.5 goals. They are listed in league position 45. Jablonec have played five times, winning three and losing two, with a goal record of 8:5. Both teams scored in 40% of their matches, and the same share went over 2.5 goals. Jablonec are listed in league position 25. Freiburg's squad has several absences: Berkay Yilmaz, Cyriaque Irié, Manuel Gulde and Patrick Osterhage are injured, and Florent Muslija is suspended. Jablonec are missing four players through suspension: Haiderson Hurtado, M. Malenšek, Matej Polidar and Saidou Alioum Moubarak.

The goals markets are fairly balanced. The model puts the chance of both teams scoring at 50.07%, almost level with the 49.93% for the opposite outcome. It gives over 2.5 goals a 52.91% probability and over 1.5 goals 76.67%. Over 3.5 stands at 31.15% and over 4.5 at 19.09%. These figures are probabilities, not certainties. Freiburg have the stronger case on the numbers, but a single match leaves plenty of room for a different result.

SC Freiburg Form

Oct 25 FC Bayern München 1 - 3 L

Oct 22 Monaco 0 - 3 L

Oct 18 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 2 L

Oct 15 Jablonec 3 - 2 W

Oct 11 Schalke 04 2 - 1 W

Jablonec Form

Oct 22 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 - 0 D

Oct 15 SC Freiburg 2 - 3 L

Aug 20 Rangers 0 - 1 L

Aug 13 Rīgas FS 2 - 1 W

Aug 6 Rīgas FS 2 - 0 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

SC Freiburg Jablonec

2.66

xG per match

0.88

0.81

xG against

2.02

22.3

Shots per match

8.3

60.5

Possession, %

38.3

Goals this season

Both teams scored, %

42.86

100

Over 2.5, %

42.86