SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Prediction & Tips

Bundesliga • Round 5

SC Freiburg

Schalke 04

Sunday, 11 October 2026 — 15:30 UTC

Europa-Park Stadion

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 58% 18 bookmakers Model 44%

Probability Distribution Home (44%) / Draw (24%) / Away (32%)

SC Freiburg win (1) 44%

1.75 OddScore Pick

Schalke 04 win (2) 32%

5.48

Draw (X) 24%

4.25

Probability Distribution Yes — 61% | No — 39%

Both teams to score — Yes 61%

1.63

Both teams to score — No 39%

2.38

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 62% | Under — 38%

Over 2.5 goals 62%

1.68

Under 2.5 goals 38%

2.43

Both teams to score Yes — 61% vs No — 39% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 62% vs Under — 38% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 44% | Market: 58% -23.8% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both sources favour Freiburg, but the market gives the home side a noticeably larger edge, and Schalke a smaller chance, than the model does. The supplied data points in Freiburg's favour on most measures: a 12-3 goal record from four matches, third place, and underlying chance quality that is strong at both ends. Schalke's record is more mixed, with two draws, a clean sheet against Bayern München, a win at Union Berlin and a 0-3 loss, and its xG against is higher than its xG for. A market that leans harder on Freiburg's form and Schalke's defensive numbers would produce a wider margin. The model's more moderate view could reflect the small samples, since each side has only four or five matches. Squad availability may matter too: Schalke has eight players unavailable and Freiburg five, with line-ups not yet announced. The data does not show how either side weighs these factors.

Gap of 13.9 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

SC Freiburg host Schalke 04 in round 5 of the Bundesliga, with kick-off at 15:30 UTC on 11 October 2026. Freiburg have made a strong start. They have played four matches, winning three and drawing one, with 12 goals scored and 3 conceded, which puts them third in the table. Schalke are 11th after four matches, with one win, two draws and one defeat, and a goal record of 3 scored and 4 conceded. The model gives Freiburg a 44.24% chance of winning, the draw 23.91% and Schalke 31.84%.

Freiburg's matches have tended to be open. Three of their four games have gone over 2.5 goals (75%), and both teams have scored in half of them. Schalke's games have been quieter: both teams have scored in 25% of them, and half have gone over 2.5 goals. The model puts both teams scoring at 60.97% and no goals from one side at 39.03%. It gives 62.03% for more than 2.5 goals and 37.97% for fewer. The chance of more than 3.5 goals is 39.62%, and for more than 4.5 it is 24.79%. The model rates over 1.5 goals at 82.36%.

Both sides have absentees. Freiburg are without Berkay Yilmaz, Cyriaque Irié, Manuel Gulde and Patrick Osterhage through injury, and Florent Muslija is suspended. Schalke's longer list includes injuries to Adrian Gantenbein, Bryan Lasme, Dejan Ljubicic, Henning Matriciani, Kenan Karaman, Mika Wallentowitz and Tomas Kalas. Ron Schallenberg is suspended. The best available bookmaker odds are 1.71 for a Freiburg win, 4.25 for a draw and 5.5 for a Schalke win. The model's figures are probabilities, not certainties, and Freiburg's edge here is moderate. With only four matches played, the form numbers come from a small sample.

SC Freiburg Form

Oct 25 FC Bayern München 1 - 3 L

Oct 22 Monaco 0 - 3 L

Oct 18 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 2 L

Oct 15 Jablonec 3 - 2 W

Oct 11 Schalke 04 2 - 1 W

Schalke 04 Form

Oct 24 FC Köln 0 - 0 D

Oct 17 FSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 L

Oct 11 SC Freiburg 1 - 2 L

Sep 20 Elversberg 0 - 0 D

Sep 11 FC Union Berlin 3 - 1 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

SC Freiburg Schalke 04

1.73

xG per match

1.03

1.04

xG against

1.73

16.1

Shots per match

51.3

Possession, %

39.4

Goals this season

71.43

Both teams scored, %

28.57

85.71

Over 2.5, %

42.86