Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig Prediction & Tips

Bundesliga • Round 8

Schalke 04

RB Leipzig

Saturday, 31 October 2026 — 14:30 UTC

Veltins-Arena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 52% 17 bookmakers Model 44%

Probability Distribution Home (44%) / Draw (25%) / Away (32%)

Schalke 04 win (1) 44%

4.28 OddScore Pick

RB Leipzig win (2) 32%

1.88

Draw (X) 25%

4.36

Probability Distribution Yes — 56% | No — 44%

Both teams to score — Yes 56%

1.44

Both teams to score — No 44%

2.80

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 56% | Under — 44%

Over 2.5 goals 56%

1.46

Under 2.5 goals 44%

2.88

Both teams to score Yes — 56% vs No — 44% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 56% vs Under — 44% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 44% | Market: 24% +80.2% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The estimates draw different implications from the supplied data. Schalke’s home status may be reflected in the statistical model’s stronger assessment of the home outcome, while their recent results and season record show limited attacking output: four goals in seven matches, an xG of 1.03 per match, and a position near the bottom of the table. Their ten unavailable players, including several injured players and one suspension, add further uncertainty.

RB Leipzig’s season record, league position, goal total, and attacking xG are stronger, and their recent wins include high scoring margins against Elversberg and Eintracht Frankfurt. This aligns with the market estimate favouring the away outcome. Leipzig also have a longer unavailable list, including several injured and suspended players, which could reduce the weight of their broader performance figures. With no line-ups announced, the effect of those absences remains unresolved.

Gap of 19.9 percentage points, and the two estimates favour different outcomes.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Schalke 04 go into the eighth round in 16th place after one win, three draws and three defeats from seven matches. They have scored four goals and conceded seven, while both teams scored in 28.57% of their games and over 2.5 goals occurred in 42.86%. RB Leipzig are fifth, with four wins and three defeats. Their record includes 20 goals scored and 11 conceded, and over 2.5 goals has occurred in 85.71% of their matches. Both teams scored in 28.57% of Leipzig’s games.

The model gives Schalke a 43.2% probability of victory, compared with 24.78% for a draw and 32.02% for a Leipzig win. It also assigns a 55.5% probability to both teams scoring and a 55.48% probability of over 2.5 goals. The available odds point in a different direction, with Leipzig priced at 1.92 for an away win, while Schalke are 4.3 and the draw is 4.32. Schalke have ten unavailable players listed, including Ron Schallenberg through suspension, while Leipzig have fifteen unavailable players, including Abdoul Koné, Leopold Zingerle and Suleiman Sani through suspension. The figures indicate a match where Schalke hold the higher modelled home-win probability, while Leipzig’s league position, goal record and bookmaker odds provide a contrasting assessment.

Schalke 04 Form

Oct 24 FC Köln 0 - 0 D

Oct 17 FSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 L

Oct 11 SC Freiburg 1 - 2 L

Sep 20 Elversberg 0 - 0 D

Sep 11 FC Union Berlin 3 - 1 W

RB Leipzig Form

Oct 24 Elversberg 4 - 0 W

Oct 21 Real Madrid 1 - 4 L

Oct 17 FC Bayern München 1 - 6 L

Oct 13 PSV 1 - 0 W

Oct 10 Eintracht Frankfurt 6 - 0 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Schalke 04 RB Leipzig

1.03

xG per match

2.24

1.73

xG against

1.58

Shots per match

17.1

39.4

Possession, %

Goals this season

28.57

Both teams scored, %

28.57

42.86

Over 2.5, %

85.71