Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 2

Sparta Praha

Lillestrøm

Thursday, 15 October 2026 — 16:45 UTC

TC Strahov

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 68% 18 bookmakers Model 58%

Probability Distribution Home (58%) / Draw (20%) / Away (21%)

Sparta Praha win (1) 58%

1.45 OddScore Pick

Lillestrøm win (2) 21%

8.50

Draw (X) 20%

5.75

Probability Distribution Yes — 57% | No — 43%

Both teams to score — Yes 57%

1.61

Both teams to score — No 43%

2.38

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 61% | Under — 39%

Over 2.5 goals 61%

1.42

Under 2.5 goals 39%

3.00

Both teams to score Yes — 57% vs No — 43% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 61% vs Under — 39% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 58% | Market: 68% -14.6% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates favour Sparta Praha, but the model leaves clearly more room for a Lillestrøm win and a draw than the bookmaker median does. The data points to a few possible contributors. Sparta have seven players listed as unavailable, against one for Lillestrøm, and a model that reflects squad absences might give that more weight than the market does. The expected-goals figures are also close: Lillestrøm's attacking figure of 2.7 per match is slightly above Sparta's 2.48, and Sparta's defensive figure is the weaker of the two sides' underlying numbers. Both figures rest on very few matches, one for Sparta's season and three for Lillestrøm's, so they are thin evidence. Sparta's recent results are mixed, with a heavy away loss and a goalless draw alongside wins. Line-ups are not yet announced, which leaves the effect of those absences uncertain.

Gap of 10 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Sparta Praha host Lillestrøm in round 2 of the Europa League, and the model makes the home side clear favourites. It gives Sparta a 58.48% chance of winning, against 20.45% for a draw and 21.04% for an away win. The best bookmaker prices, 1.38 for the home win, 5.4 for the draw and 8.8 for Lillestrøm, point the same way. Sparta won their one match this season 4:1, with both teams scoring and more than 2.5 goals. Lillestrøm have played three, with one win, one draw and one defeat and a goal tally of 3:3. Both teams scored in 66.67% of those games, as did more than 2.5 goals. The data lists Sparta at league position 26 and Lillestrøm at 19.

Sparta have several absentees. Elias Cobbaut, Indrit Tuci, Jakub Martinec, Ki-Jana Hoever, Magnus Kofod Andersen and Sivert Mannsverk are injured, and Emmanuel Uchenna is suspended. Lillestrøm are missing only Gustav Nyheim, who is suspended. The data gives no further detail on how these absences might affect the lineups, so the favourite's edge should be read with that in mind.

On goals, the model puts the chance of both teams scoring at 57.24%, against 42.76% for a clean sheet by at least one side. It gives 81.78% for over 1.5 goals and 61.1% for over 2.5. Over 3.5 stands at 39.46% and over 4.5 at 25.97%. A match with goals at both ends is therefore the more likely pattern, though a high-scoring game is not the central expectation. These are probabilities, not certainties. Even a clear favourite fails to win a considerable share of the time, and the model leaves about 41.5% for a draw or an away win.

Sparta Praha Form

Oct 22 Olympiacos F.C. 0 - 1 L

Oct 15 Lillestrøm 1 - 1 D

Sep 16 Ararat-Armenia 4 - 1 W

Aug 11 Olympique Lyonnais 0 - 3 L

Aug 4 Olympique Lyonnais 2 - 1 W

Lillestrøm Form

Oct 22 Real Sociedad 0 - 6 L

Oct 15 Sparta Praha 1 - 1 D

Sep 17 Torreense 1 - 2 L

Aug 27 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2 - 1 W

Aug 20 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 - 0 D

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Sparta Praha Lillestrøm

1.51

xG per match

1.77

1.5

xG against

1.76

17.3

Shots per match

12.2

50.3

Possession, %

52.8

Goals this season

66.67

Both teams scored, %

33.33

Over 2.5, %