Sturm Graz vs Celje Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 4

Sturm Graz

Celje

Thursday, 5 November 2026 — 20:00 UTC

Merkur Arena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 59% 14 bookmakers Model 43%

Probability Distribution Home (43%) / Draw (25%) / Away (32%)

Sturm Graz win (1) 43%

1.61 OddScore Pick

Celje win (2) 32%

5.37

Draw (X) 25%

4.46

Probability Distribution Yes — 54% | No — 46%

Both teams to score — Yes 54%

1.67

Both teams to score — No 46%

2.25

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 54% | Under — 46%

Over 2.5 goals 54%

1.64

Under 2.5 goals 46%

2.41

Both teams to score Yes — 54% vs No — 46% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 54% vs Under — 46% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 43% | Market: 59% -27.2% Edge

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✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Our model leans towards a Sturm Graz win in this fixture, with a confidence of 43%. Sturm Graz come into this one having taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 0.77 expected goals for and 2.03 against.

Celje arrive with 0-2-3 across their own last 5. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%. At the current price of 1.61 the market has this one covered, so there is no edge to take.

Sturm Graz Form

Oct 22 Olympique Marseille 1 - 0 W

Oct 15 AFC Bournemouth 0 - 3 L

Sep 16 Rennes 0 - 0 D

Aug 11 Fenerbahçe 0 - 1 L

Aug 5 Fenerbahçe 0 - 2 L

Celje Form

Oct 22 Salzburg 2 - 2 D

Oct 15 Omonia Nicosia 0 - 3 L

Sep 16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 - 2 L

Aug 26 Slovan Bratislava 1 - 2 L

Aug 19 Slovan Bratislava 1 - 1 D

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Sturm Graz Celje

0.77

xG per match

1.01

2.03

xG against

1.5

Shots per match

34.7

Possession, %

51.7

Goals this season

Both teams scored, %

33.33

Over 2.5, %

66.67