Sunderland win (1)
43%
2.95
OddScore Pick
43%
Sunderland vs Leeds United Prediction & Tips
Premier League
• Round 8
Sunderland
Leeds United
Sunday, 25 October 2026 — 16:30 UTC
Stadium of Light
Stadium of Light
AI Prediction Markets
Market average
35%
17 bookmakers
Model
43%
43%
Probability Distribution
Home (43%) / Draw (28%) / Away (29%)
Leeds United win (2)
29%
2.82
Draw (X)
28%
3.25
Probability Distribution
Yes — 51% | No — 49%
Both teams to score — Yes
51%
1.90
Both teams to score — No
49%
2.00
Probability Distribution
Under — 54% | Over 2.5 — 46%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.74
Over 2.5 goals
46%
2.32
Yes
Under
✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown
Our model leans towards a Sunderland win in this fixture, with a confidence of 43%. Sunderland come into this one having taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 1.38 expected goals for and 1.64 against.
Leeds United arrive with 1-3-1 across their own last 5. The last 2 meetings between the two produced goals at both ends 1 time. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%. At the current price of 2.95 that leaves a 25.5% edge over the market.
Sunderland Form
Oct 25
Leeds United
0 - 0
D
Oct 22
Lech Poznań
1 - 1
D
Oct 18
AFC Bournemouth
0 - 2
L
Oct 15
Torreense
2 - 1
W
Oct 10
Brighton & Hove Albion
0 - 2
L
Leeds United Form
Oct 25
Sunderland
0 - 0
D
Oct 18
Manchester United
1 - 1
D
Oct 10
Arsenal
1 - 2
L
Sep 20
Crystal Palace
0 - 0
D
Sep 14
Newcastle United
4 - 1
W
Head to Head History
DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Mar 3, 2026
Leeds United
0 - 1
Sunderland
Elland Road
Dec 28, 2025
Sunderland
1 - 1
Leeds United
Stadium of Light
Key Stats & Team Metrics
Sunderland
Leeds United
1.38
xG per match
1.26
1.64
xG against
1.36
12
Shots per match
11.9
48.8
Possession, %
47.5
6
Goals this season
9
37.5
Both teams scored, %
62.5
25
Over 2.5, %
25