Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction & Tips

Ligue 1 • Round 8

Toulouse

Troyes

Sunday, 25 October 2026 — 16:15 UTC

Stadium de Toulouse

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 61% 17 bookmakers Model 39%

Probability Distribution Home (39%) / Draw (25%) / Away (35%)

Toulouse win (1) 39%

1.61 OddScore Pick

Troyes win (2) 35%

6.16

Draw (X) 25%

4.60

Probability Distribution Yes — 56% | No — 44%

Both teams to score — Yes 56%

1.70

Both teams to score — No 44%

2.25

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 54% | Under — 46%

Over 2.5 goals 54%

1.66

Under 2.5 goals 46%

2.48

Both teams to score Yes — 56% vs No — 44% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 54% vs Under — 46% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 39% | Market: 61% -35.7% Edge

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✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Our model leans towards a Toulouse win in this fixture, with a confidence of 39%. Toulouse come into this one having taken 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 1.64 expected goals for and 1.48 against.

Troyes arrive with 0-1-4 across their own last 5. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%. At the current price of 1.61 the market has this one covered, so there is no edge to take.

Toulouse Form

Oct 25 Troyes 0 - 0 D

Oct 16 Le Mans 3 - 0 W

Oct 10 Monaco 2 - 2 D

Sep 19 Le Havre 3 - 2 W

Sep 12 Lorient 2 - 2 D

Troyes Form

Oct 25 Toulouse 0 - 0 D

Oct 17 Lens 1 - 3 L

Oct 11 Olympique Marseille 0 - 2 L

Sep 19 Angers SCO 0 - 2 L

Sep 13 LOSC Lille 0 - 2 L

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Toulouse Troyes

1.64

xG per match

1.14

1.48

xG against

1.53

12.9

Shots per match

13.6

51.8

Possession, %

38.8

Goals this season

Both teams scored, %

37.5

62.5

Over 2.5, %

37.5