Trabzonspor vs Hearts Prediction & Tips

Europa Conference League • Round 2
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
versus
Hearts
Hearts
Thursday, 22 October 2026 — 16:45 UTC Papara Park

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 71% 18 bookmakers Model 47%
Probability Distribution Home (47%) / Draw (23%) / Away (31%)
Trabzonspor win (1) 47%
1.35 OddScore Pick
Hearts win (2) 31%
8.60
Draw (X) 23%
6.25
Probability Distribution Yes — 51% | No — 49%
Both teams to score — Yes 51%
1.66
Both teams to score — No 49%
2.33
Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 54% | Under — 46%
Over 2.5 goals 54%
1.36
Under 2.5 goals 46%
3.40
Both teams to score Yes — 51% vs No — 49% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 54% vs Under — 46% Over
Neural edge detected Model: 47% | Market: 71% -34.2% Edge

⇄ Why the estimates differ

The data points to a few things that could pull the two estimates apart, though none of them settles it. Trabzonspor's recent results are mixed: one win away at KuPS, but three defeats and a goalless draw in the other four matches. Their expected goals against per match is also high, well above what Hearts concede. A model that leans on those underlying numbers and recent form would plausibly give the home side a smaller edge. Hearts have drawn all of their recent league-phase matches and their expected goals figures are fairly balanced, which may leave the model seeing them as a more competitive side than the market does.

The other notable item is the long list of unavailable Trabzonspor players, mostly suspended, compared with only three injured Hearts players. Lineups are not yet announced, so it is unclear how either approach accounts for this. The data does not show how the market weighs these factors, so this is only a description of where the inputs differ.

Gap of 24.2 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Trabzonspor host Hearts in round 2 of the Europa Conference League, and the model gives the home side the edge. It puts Trabzonspor's win probability at 46.59%, the draw at 22.69% and a Hearts win at 30.76%. The bookmaker prices are much shorter on the hosts. Their best home-win odds of 1.3 imply a higher chance than the model's figure. The market is therefore more confident in Trabzonspor than the model is, and it gives Hearts less chance than the model does.

Form is a small sample for both sides. Trabzonspor have played one match this season and won it 4:2, with both teams scoring and more than 2.5 goals. Hearts have played two, drawing both, with goals of 3:3. Both teams scored in all of their games, and half of them went over 2.5 goals. These samples are too small to carry much weight.

The model suggests a fairly open match. It gives 51.04% for both teams scoring and 53.94% for more than 2.5 goals. The chance of more than 1.5 goals is 76.6%, and the chance of more than 3.5 is 29.91%. The under 3.5 line is the likelier side at 70.09%, which points to a match with goals but not necessarily a high-scoring one.

Team news matters here. Trabzonspor list a long absence list: 26 names in the data are unavailable for the club, mostly through suspension, with injuries to others. Hearts are without Blair Spittal, Craig Halkett and Tom Renaud, all injured. The data does not say how these absences affect the starting line-ups, so the probabilities above should be read as estimates and not as a forecast of the result.

Trabzonspor Form

Oct 22 Hearts 2 - 0 W
Oct 15 KuPS 4 - 2 W
Aug 27 Ferencvárosi 0 - 4 L
Aug 20 Ferencvárosi 0 - 1 L
Aug 22 St. Gallen 0 - 0 D

Hearts Form

Oct 22 Trabzonspor 0 - 2 L
Oct 15 Nordsjælland 1 - 1 D
Aug 20 SK Rapid 2 - 2 D
Aug 13 Benfica 1 - 1 D
Aug 6 Benfica 1 - 6 L

Key Stats & Team Metrics

Trabzonspor Hearts
2.62
xG per match
1.15
1.8
xG against
1.32
16.5
Shots per match
15.7
58
Possession, %
40.7
6
Goals this season
3
50
Both teams scored, %
66.67
50
Over 2.5, %
33.33