Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 3

Union Saint-Gilloise

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Thursday, 22 October 2026 — 16:45 UTC

Merkur Spiel-Arena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 66% 18 bookmakers Model 54%

Probability Distribution Home (54%) / Draw (23%) / Away (23%)

Union Saint-Gilloise win (1) 54%

1.48 OddScore Pick

Hapoel Be'er Sheva win (2) 23%

8.50

Draw (X) 23%

5.50

Probability Distribution No — 50% | Yes — 50%

Both teams to score — No 50%

2.15

Both teams to score — Yes 50%

1.80

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 52% | Under — 48%

Over 2.5 goals 52%

1.53

Under 2.5 goals 48%

2.62

Both teams to score Yes — 50% vs No — 50% No

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 52% vs Under — 48% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 54% | Market: 66% -18.5% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both sources favour Union Saint-Gilloise, but the market gives the home side a much larger edge. The supplied data points to a few things that could pull the two apart. Union's expected goals per match are well above Hapoel Be'er Sheva's, and their expected goals against are far lower. Hapoel's figures run the other way, with a conceded xG of 2.26 against 1.05 created. A market that leans heavily on those underlying numbers would sit further toward the home side. The table positions, 25 against 53, point the same way.

Other details may be weighed differently. Both squads have many absentees, with injuries and suspensions on each side. Union also drew 3-3 and lost 2-3 against Bodø / Glimt, while Hapoel lost 2-5 to Sabah. Each side's season sample is only two matches, so how much weight these results carry could differ between the two sources. The data doesn't show which factor drives the gap.

Gap of 12.2 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Union Saint-Gilloise host Hapoel Be'er Sheva in Round 3 of the Europa League, and the model rates the home side as clear favourites. It gives Union a 53.43% chance of winning, against 23.21% for a draw and 23.36% for an away victory. The bookmaker prices point the same way, with the best available odds at 1.33 for the home side, 6 for the draw and 10 for Be'er Sheva. The market is more confident in Union than the model is, so the model's view of the match is more cautious than the odds suggest.

Both teams have played only twice this season, so the form data is thin. Union have one win and one draw, with four goals scored and one conceded. Be'er Sheva have one draw and one defeat, scoring one and conceding two. Each side has seen both teams score in 50% of its matches and more than 2.5 goals in 50%. Union are listed at position 25 and Be'er Sheva at 53.

Both squads have many absentees. Union are missing twelve players: Adem Zorgane, Ilan Hurtevent, Kevin Mac Allister, Kevin Rodríguez, Nohim Chibani, Ondřej Kričfaluši, Rob Schoofs and Ross Sykes are injured, and Anouar Ait El Hadj, Ivan Pavlić, Kamiel Van De Perre and Raul Florucz are suspended. Be'er Sheva are without nine: Dan Biton, Itay Rotman, João Victor and Lucas Ventura are injured, and Javon East, Muhammad Abu Rumi, Roy Levy, Yoan Stoyanov and Zahi Ahmed are suspended. On goals, the model puts both teams scoring at 49.9% and no at 50.1%. It gives over 2.5 goals 51.58% and over 3.5 goals 29.43%. Over 1.5 goals comes in at 75.1%. These figures are probabilities, so a Union win is the most likely result but far from certain.

Union Saint-Gilloise Form

Oct 22 Hapoel Be'er Sheva 4 - 0 W

Oct 15 Real Sociedad 1 - 1 D

Sep 17 Viktoria Plzeň 3 - 0 W

Aug 11 Bodø / Glimt 2 - 3 L

Aug 4 Bodø / Glimt 3 - 3 D

Hapoel Be'er Sheva Form

Oct 22 Union Saint-Gilloise 0 - 4 L

Oct 15 AZ Alkmaar 1 - 2 L

Sep 16 Dinamo Zagreb 0 - 0 D

Aug 25 Sabah 2 - 5 L

Aug 19 Sabah 2 - 1 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Union Saint-Gilloise Hapoel Be'er Sheva

2.62

xG per match

0.8

0.83

xG against

1.91

22.3

Shots per match

48.7

Possession, %

Goals this season

33.33

Both teams scored, %

33.33

66.67

Over 2.5, %

66.67