Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Valencia host Villarreal in Round 10 of La Liga, with kick-off at 16:30 UTC on 24 October 2026. The model gives the away side the edge: Villarreal at 39.73%, a draw at 26.48% and a Valencia win at 33.79%. The bookmaker prices point the same way, with Villarreal at 2.25, Valencia at 3.32 and the draw at 3.80. Neither side is a strong favourite, and the draw probability is far from negligible.

The league table helps explain the lean. Villarreal are 12th after nine matches, with two wins, three draws and four defeats and a goal record of 13:13. Valencia are 19th with one win, three draws and five defeats, and have scored 6 and conceded 15. Valencia's low scoring shows in their trends: both teams have scored in 33.33% of their matches and over 2.5 goals in 44.44%. Villarreal's games have been more open, at 66.67% for both measures. Villarreal have won the last two meetings, 2:1 in February 2026 and 2:0 away in October 2025. The two before that were 1:1 draws.

Both squads are short of players. Villarreal are without Alfonso Pedraza, Juan Foyth, Nicolas Pépé, Santi Comesaña, Sergi Cardona and Tajon Buchanan through injury. Daniel Thioune and Raúl Albiol are suspended. Valencia have nine injured players: César Tárrega, Diego López, Dimitri Foulquier, Javi Guerra, José Copete, Justin de Haas, Mouctar Diakhaby, Sergi Canós and Umar Sadiq. On goals, the model puts both teams scoring at 56.29% and over 2.5 goals at 51.98%. It gives over 1.5 a 75.49% chance and over 3.5 a 28.82% chance. These are probabilities and not certainties, and a match between two struggling sides with long absence lists could go either way.