Venezia vs Inter Prediction & Tips

Serie A • Round 9
Venezia
Venezia
versus
Inter
Inter
Wednesday, 28 October 2026 — 17:30 UTC Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 69% 17 bookmakers Model 47%
Probability Distribution Home (29%) / Draw (24%) / Away (47%)
Inter win (2) 47%
1.41 OddScore Pick
Venezia win (1) 29%
8.05
Draw (X) 24%
5.80
Probability Distribution Yes — 56% | No — 44%
Both teams to score — Yes 56%
1.62
Both teams to score — No 44%
2.27
Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 55% | Under — 45%
Over 2.5 goals 55%
1.43
Under 2.5 goals 45%
3.20
Both teams to score Yes — 56% vs No — 44% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 55% vs Under — 45% Over
Neural edge detected Model: 47% | Market: 69% -31.8% Edge

⇄ Why the estimates differ

The market’s stronger away lean is consistent with the large difference in season records and table positions: Inter have seven wins and one draw from eight matches, while Venezia have seven defeats and one win. Inter have also scored far more goals, and their recent results are mostly positive. The two previous head-to-head meetings also ended in narrow Inter wins.

The model’s less decisive assessment could reflect data pointing to a more competitive match than the basic results suggest. Venezia’s xG for is higher than their actual six-goal season total, while their recent losses include several close or competitive scorelines. Inter’s xG against is relatively high, and they recently conceded four goals to Club Brugge. Both teams have several unavailable players, including significant attacking and defensive absences, which could affect expected strength in either direction. No line-ups have been announced, leaving those effects unresolved.

Gap of 22.1 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Venezia and Inter meet in Serie A’s ninth round with sharply contrasting records after eight matches. Venezia are 20th, having won once and lost seven times, with six goals scored and 17 conceded. Inter lead the league with seven wins, one draw and no defeats, while their goal record stands at 23 scored and 10 conceded. The recent head-to-head record also favors Inter, who won the last two meetings 1-0, at home in November 2024 and away in January 2025.

The model gives Inter a 47.28% probability of winning, compared with 28.8% for Venezia and 23.89% for a draw. It assigns a 55.71% probability to both teams scoring and 55.47% to more than 2.5 goals. The teams’ season profiles point in different directions: both teams scored in 37.5% of Venezia’s matches and in 75% of Inter’s, while over 2.5 goals occurred in 37.5% and 87.5% respectively. Several players are unavailable through injury for both sides, including Lautaro Martínez and Federico Dimarco for Inter, and Gianluca Busio and Pasquale Mazzocchi for Venezia. On the available numbers, Inter enter as the more likely winner, although the probabilities leave room for either a draw or a Venezia victory.

Venezia Form

Oct 28 Inter 0 - 2 L
Oct 25 Genoa 0 - 1 L
Oct 17 Napoli 1 - 0 W
Oct 12 Atalanta 1 - 3 L
Sep 19 Lazio 0 - 2 L

Inter Form

Oct 28 Venezia 2 - 0 W
Oct 25 Fiorentina 2 - 1 W
Oct 21 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 0 W
Oct 17 Bologna 3 - 1 W
Oct 13 Club Brugge 3 - 4 L

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Jan 12, 2025 Venezia 0 - 1 Inter Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Nov 3, 2024 Inter 1 - 0 Venezia Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Key Stats & Team Metrics

Venezia Inter
1.6
xG per match
2.82
1.95
xG against
1.03
14.3
Shots per match
22.3
52.1
Possession, %
63.1
6
Goals this season
25
33.33
Both teams scored, %
66.67
33.33
Over 2.5, %
77.78