Venezia vs Napoli Prediction & Tips

Serie A • Round 7

Venezia

Napoli

Saturday, 17 October 2026 — 13:00 UTC

Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 54% 18 bookmakers Model 38%

Probability Distribution Home (36%) / Draw (26%) / Away (38%)

Napoli win (2) 38%

1.85 OddScore Pick

Venezia win (1) 36%

4.85

Draw (X) 26%

4.15

Probability Distribution Yes — 58% | No — 42%

Both teams to score — Yes 58%

1.70

Both teams to score — No 42%

2.15

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 57% | Under — 43%

Over 2.5 goals 57%

1.78

Under 2.5 goals 43%

2.20

Both teams to score Yes — 58% vs No — 42% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 57% vs Under — 43% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 38% | Market: 54% -28.9% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The clearest difference in the data is between results and underlying chances. Venezia have lost all six league matches, sit 20th and have conceded far more than they have scored, which is the kind of record a market view may lean on. Their expected goals per match, however, are level with Napoli's for attacking output, and the gap in expected goals against is modest. A model built on those underlying numbers could sit closer to an even contest than one reflecting the table.

Injuries do not obviously separate the two sides. Venezia list ten absentees and Napoli nine, including their goalkeeper and McTominay. The data does not show how either estimate treats these. Line-ups are not yet announced, and the two earlier meetings were a draw and a one-goal result, which offers little to explain the gap.

Gap of 15.6 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Venezia host Napoli in Round 7 of Serie A, with kick-off at 13:00 UTC on 17 October 2026. The model sees a close contest: Napoli at 38.47%, Venezia at 35.63% and a draw at 25.87%. Venezia are 20th after six league games, with no wins, no draws and six defeats, and a goal difference of 5 scored to 16 conceded. Napoli are 8th with three wins, one draw and two defeats, and have scored 10 and conceded 6. The model's view is much tighter than the bookmakers' best prices of 5.04 for a Venezia win, 4.32 for a draw and 1.73 for a Napoli win. Those prices make Napoli clear favourites, while the model gives them only a slim edge.

The model leans towards goals. It puts both teams scoring at 58.36%, and over 2.5 goals at 57.14%. Over 1.5 is at 79.47%, over 3.5 at 35.02% and over 4.5 at 20.54%. Both sides' recent games have been more mixed than that. Each has seen both teams score in 50% of its matches, and each has seen over 2.5 goals in 50%.

Both squads have long absence lists. Venezia are without ten players through injury, including Andrea Adorante, Armel Bella-Kotchap and Gianluca Busio. Napoli are missing nine, among them Alex Meret, Alessandro Buongiorno and Scott McTominay. The last two meetings were low-scoring: Napoli won 1:0 on 29 December 2024, and the sides drew 0:0 on 16 March 2025. These figures are probabilities and not certainties, and a match this evenly rated could go either way.

Venezia Form

Oct 28 Inter 0 - 2 L

Oct 25 Genoa 0 - 1 L

Oct 17 Napoli 1 - 0 W

Oct 12 Atalanta 1 - 3 L

Sep 19 Lazio 0 - 2 L

Napoli Form

Oct 28 Monza 4 - 1 W

Oct 24 Roma 3 - 3 D

Oct 20 Bodø / Glimt 4 - 3 W

Oct 17 Venezia 0 - 1 L

Oct 13 Villarreal 1 - 3 L

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Mar 16, 2025 Venezia 0 - 0 Napoli Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Dec 29, 2024 Napoli 1 - 0 Venezia Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Venezia Napoli

1.6

xG per match

1.95

xG against

1.39

14.3

Shots per match

16.6

52.1

Possession, %

52.8

Goals this season

33.33

Both teams scored, %

55.56

33.33

Over 2.5, %

55.56