Villarreal vs Elche Prediction & Tips

La Liga • Round 9
Villarreal
Villarreal
versus
Elche
Elche
Saturday, 17 October 2026 — 14:15 UTC Estadio de la Cerámica

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 66% 18 bookmakers Model 60%
Probability Distribution Home (60%) / Draw (23%) / Away (17%)
Villarreal win (1) 60%
1.49 OddScore Pick
Draw (X) 23%
5.14
Elche win (2) 17%
7.00
Probability Distribution Yes — 53% | No — 47%
Both teams to score — Yes 53%
1.57
Both teams to score — No 47%
2.40
Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 54% | Under — 46%
Over 2.5 goals 54%
1.45
Under 2.5 goals 46%
3.00
Both teams to score Yes — 53% vs No — 47% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 54% vs Under — 46% Over
Neural edge detected Model: 60% | Market: 66% -8.2% Edge

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Villarreal host Elche in round 9 of La Liga on 17 October, with kick-off at 14:15 UTC. The model gives the home side a 60.3% chance of winning, with 22.87% for a draw and 16.82% for an away win. The best bookmaker odds point the same way, at 1.51 for Villarreal, 5.2 for the draw and 7 for Elche. Villarreal are 11th after eight games, with two wins, two draws and four defeats and a goal record of 13 scored and 13 conceded. Elche are 18th, with one win, three draws and four defeats, and have scored 11 and conceded 17. The two meetings last season favoured Villarreal, who won 3:1 away on 3 January and 2:1 at home on 8 March.

Both sides have been involved in open games. Both teams have scored in 75% of the matches of each, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Villarreal's games and 62.5% of Elche's. The model puts both teams scoring at 53.01% against 46.99% for no. It gives 53.69% for more than 2.5 goals and 76.48% for more than 1.5. The chance of more than 3.5 goals is 31.5%, and for more than 4.5 it is 19.23%.

Both squads have absentees. Villarreal are without Alfonso Pedraza, Juan Foyth, Santi Comesaña, Sergi Cardona and Tajon Buchanan through injury, and Daniel Thioune and Raúl Albiol are suspended. Elche are missing Abiel Osorio and Borja Martínez through injury, and Federico Redondo is suspended. Villarreal's list is longer, which tempers the case for them a little. Even so, the model still sees a home win as the most likely single result, though it is a probability and not a certainty.

Villarreal Form

Oct 30 Espanyol 0 - 1 L
Oct 24 Valencia 2 - 1 W
Oct 20 Liverpool 3 - 4 L
Oct 17 Elche 0 - 0 D
Oct 13 Napoli 3 - 1 W

Elche Form

Oct 24 Rayo Vallecano 3 - 0 W
Oct 17 Villarreal 0 - 0 D
Oct 11 Celta de Vigo 0 - 0 D
Sep 18 Espanyol 3 - 1 W
Sep 15 Real Madrid 2 - 3 L

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Mar 8, 2026 Villarreal 2 - 1 Elche Estadio de la Cerámica
Jan 3, 2026 Elche 1 - 3 Villarreal Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Key Stats & Team Metrics

Villarreal Elche
1.86
xG per match
1.35
1.11
xG against
1.55
16.4
Shots per match
11.5
60.7
Possession, %
50.1
15
Goals this season
14
63.64
Both teams scored, %
60
63.64
Over 2.5, %
60