Villarreal vs Napoli Prediction & Tips

Champions League • Round 2
Villarreal
Villarreal
versus
Napoli
Napoli
Tuesday, 13 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC Estadio de la Cerámica

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 44% 19 bookmakers Model 39%
Probability Distribution Home (39%) / Draw (26%) / Away (36%)
Villarreal win (1) 39%
2.25 OddScore Pick
Napoli win (2) 36%
3.50
Draw (X) 26%
3.75
Probability Distribution Yes — 57% | No — 43%
Both teams to score — Yes 57%
1.62
Both teams to score — No 43%
2.38
Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 55% | Under — 45%
Over 2.5 goals 55%
1.79
Under 2.5 goals 45%
2.26
Both teams to score Yes — 57% vs No — 43% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 55% vs Under — 45% Over
Neural edge detected Model: 39% | Market: 44% -12.3% Edge

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Villarreal face Napoli in the opening round of the Champions League, scheduled for kick-off at 19:00:00 UTC on September 8, 2026. The statistical model assigns Napoli a 40.96% probability of securing an away victory, while a home win for Villarreal is calculated at 34.21%, and the probability of a draw stands at 24.82%. In the goal markets, there is a 58.95% chance that both teams score, compared to 41.05% for either side failing to do so. Over 1.5 goals holds a 79.82% probability, over 2.5 goals sits at 57.73%, and over 3.5 goals is rated at 35.52%.

In terms of form from last season, Villarreal finished in 16th position after recording zero wins, two draws, and two defeats across four matches, scoring six goals and conceding eight. During that run, both teams scored in 75% of their games, with 75% also exceeding 2.5 goals. Napoli finished in 11th position, registering one win, zero draws, and two losses in three matches, with a goal record of five scored and five conceded, alongside both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals rates of 66.67%.

Both teams must navigate several roster absences. Villarreal will be without Alfonso Pedraza and Sergi Cardona due to injury, while Daniel Thioune and Raúl Albiol are unavailable through suspension. Napoli travel without the injured quartet of Alessandro Buongiorno, Giovane, Luca Marianucci, and Scott McTominay.

Villarreal Form

Oct 30 Espanyol 0 - 1 L
Oct 24 Valencia 2 - 1 W
Oct 20 Liverpool 3 - 4 L
Oct 17 Elche 0 - 0 D
Oct 13 Napoli 3 - 1 W

Napoli Form

Oct 28 Monza 4 - 1 W
Oct 24 Roma 3 - 3 D
Oct 20 Bodø / Glimt 4 - 3 W
Oct 17 Venezia 0 - 1 L
Oct 13 Villarreal 1 - 3 L

Key Stats & Team Metrics

Villarreal Napoli
1.43
xG per match
1.39
2.42
xG against
2.44
14.7
Shots per match
11
49
Possession, %
44.3
8
Goals this season
5
100
Both teams scored, %
66.67
100
Over 2.5, %
66.67