Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Prediction & Tips

Bundesliga • Round 6

Werder Bremen

Paderborn

Saturday, 17 October 2026 — 13:30 UTC

Wohninvest Weserstadion

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 56% 18 bookmakers Model 40%

Probability Distribution Home (40%) / Draw (25%) / Away (35%)

Werder Bremen win (1) 40%

1.81 OddScore Pick

Paderborn win (2) 35%

4.85

Draw (X) 25%

4.47

Probability Distribution Yes — 57% | No — 43%

Both teams to score — Yes 57%

1.55

Both teams to score — No 43%

2.50

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 54% | Under — 46%

Over 2.5 goals 54%

1.51

Under 2.5 goals 46%

2.71

Both teams to score Yes — 57% vs No — 43% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 54% vs Under — 46% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 40% | Market: 56% -28.3% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both sources put Werder Bremen ahead, but the model leaves noticeably more room for Paderborn and the draw than the market does. The data offers a few things that could account for this. Bremen's underlying numbers are less flattering than their results: they have scored and conceded ten goals each, and their expected goals against per match (1.68) is well above their expected goals for (1.12). A model weighting chance quality would tend to treat that as a weaker home side than the table position of seventh suggests. Paderborn's expected figures are similar in shape (0.99 for, 1.60 against), so the two teams look closer on that measure than on results. Bremen also have eleven players listed as injured, nearly double Paderborn's six, which a model may weigh more heavily. The data does not show how bookmakers treat any of this, and no line-ups are announced.

Gap of 15.8 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Werder Bremen host Paderborn in round 6 of the Bundesliga, and the model gives the home side a modest edge. Bremen are rated at 40% to win, with the draw at 25.31% and a Paderborn victory at 34.69%. That is a fairly open three-way split. The best available bookmaker prices (1.84 home, 4.26 draw, 4.21 away) point the same way, though they rate Paderborn as less likely to win than the model does. Bremen sit seventh after five matches with two wins, two draws and a defeat, and a goal difference of 10:10. Paderborn are 15th with one win, one draw and three losses, having scored 3 and conceded 7.

The goals market looks more balanced than the form tables suggest. The model puts both teams scoring at 56.52% and over 2.5 goals at 54.42%, with over 1.5 at 77.74% and over 3.5 at 32.05%. Bremen's matches have been open: both teams have scored in all five of their games, and four of the five have gone over 2.5 goals. Paderborn's games have been quieter, with both teams scoring in 20% of them and over 2.5 goals in 40%. The model's figures sit between those two profiles.

Both squads are short of players. Bremen list eleven absentees through injury: Felix Agu, Jens Stage, Justin Njinmah, Keke Topp, Marvin Ducksch, Mitchell Weiser, Moussa Ndiaye, Oskar Wojcik, Salim Musah, Senne Lynen and Skelly Alvero. Paderborn are without six: Felix Götze, Lasse Eickel, Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant, Sebastian Klaas, Sven Michel and Timur Gayret. These lists may affect how either side lines up, but the probabilities above remain estimates and not a guarantee of any result.

Werder Bremen Form

Oct 24 FSV Mainz 05 3 - 2 W

Oct 17 Paderborn 2 - 2 D

Oct 9 Borussia Dortmund 2 - 2 D

Sep 19 FC Augsburg 3 - 2 W

Sep 12 FC Köln 1 - 1 D

Paderborn Form

Oct 24 Hamburger SV 1 - 0 W

Oct 17 Werder Bremen 2 - 2 D

Oct 10 VfB Stuttgart 0 - 2 L

Sep 20 TSG Hoffenheim 3 - 1 W

Sep 12 Borussia Dortmund 0 - 3 L

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Werder Bremen Paderborn

1.58

xG per match

1.11

1.65

xG against

1.57

14.4

Shots per match

13.9

47.3

Possession, %

48.6

Goals this season

100

Both teams scored, %

28.57

85.71

Over 2.5, %

42.86