Premier League Predictions

How to Read Our Premier League Predictions

Every Premier League match card shows two sets of numbers next to each other. Model is the probability calculated by the Sportmonks prediction model, the data provider behind our predictions. Market is the probability implied by the bookmaker odds we track for that fixture. When the two are close, the market and the model broadly agree. When they drift apart, it is worth opening the match and seeing why.

Under the badges you will find the 1X2 split: the chance of a home win (1), a draw (X) and an away win (2). The Pick is simply the outcome the model rates as most likely. It is not a guarantee and it is not a staking suggestion. A pick at 39% means the model still expects the other two outcomes to happen more often combined. On a full EPL matchday you will often see picks below 50%: the model simply rates them as the most likely of three outcomes.

Predictions are refreshed once a day. During the day only the odds and the market estimate move, so if you come back in the evening you may see a different Market figure next to the same Model figure. All kick-off times are shown in UTC.

More detail on the How it works page.

Premier League Betting Markets: 1X2, BTTS and Over/Under 2.5

We cover three markets for Premier League matches, and only these three.

1X2 (match result). Home win, draw or away win, each with its own probability. The draw has its own percentage on every card, so check it before you settle on a home or away pick.

Both teams to score (BTTS). The chance that both sides find the net. A high Yes figure points to an open game; a high No figure suggests at least one clean sheet is likely.

Over/Under 2.5 goals. The chance of three or more goals in the match, or two or fewer. It tells you about the expected tempo of the game regardless of who wins.

BTTS and Over/Under 2.5 predictions are not available for every fixture. Use the tabs above the list (All Picks, 1X2, BTTS, Over 2.5) to see which matches have a prediction for each market.

About the Premier League

The Premier League is the top division of English football. Twenty clubs play each other twice, home and away, which gives every club 38 league matches over the season.

Because every club meets every other club in both venues, the season is a long run of comparable fixtures, which is what EPL predictions are built around. Our England Premier League predictions cover every fixture the provider publishes a prediction for as the season goes on.

Prefer quick EPL picks or Premier League tips to full probabilities? The Pick on each card is the short version, and the percentages give you the detail behind our English Premier League predictions. For a wider view, the today and tomorrow pages show Premier League matches alongside the other competitions we cover.